Election results are an important source of information about how a country is governed and by whom. They help determine the economy, domestic and foreign policy, law enforcement, the quality of air and water Americans breathe, how children are educated, and many other aspects of our lives. Whether the outcome of an election is close or not, every vote matters.
The way that election results are communicated and reported can also have a big impact on voters’ trust in those results. Election officials have a responsibility to be transparent and timely in the release of results. They can help to build confidence in the electoral process by ensuring that the public understands the factors and timelines that impact when election results are final and certified.
Markets tend to respond positively when there is clarity about election outcomes, and a clear winner has been announced. However, this election was extremely close and there are concerns about the possibility of a recount or even a Supreme Court challenge to the result. This could mean that it would be weeks before the final result is known, and uncertainty over the outcome may cause market volatility.
Historically, people who perceive that the election was not a competitive one for their favourite candidate have been more suspicious of electoral integrity than those who expected to win (see figure below). This might be partly because they think that their own party has meddled in elections in the past and because they are sceptical about how much their preferred candidates can actually accomplish given the constraints of Congress and state laws.